“Latest figures from independent researchers show the average person in PNG is now over K1,000 worse off because of the poor economic policies of the PNC. From 2012 to 2018, average incomes have dropped from K6,048 to K5,033 – a loss in average incomes of K1,015 per person.
“This is an appalling record for the PNC – no other government in PNG’s history has delivered such bad outcomes for the people of PNG. When will the people of PNG give up on the People’s National Congress and its shameful economic record?” asked the Shadow Treasurer, Mr Ling-Stuckey.
“The government continues to run with two page advertisements promoting the MYEFO whilst chocking the opposition on advertising funds to respond in the media, but these numbers have been blown apart by independent researchers at the Australian National University and University of PNG. In an article released on Friday 24 August, titled ‘PNG’s 2015 Non-Resource Recession’ these researchers examine the March 2018 National Statistics Office latest figures on the PNG economy. Based on the NSO figures and PNG Treasury estimates for the resource sector, they calculate that the PNG economy outside of the resource sector went backwards by an extraordinary 5.9% in 2015.
“In addition, they consider this recession in the non-resource parts of the economy continued into 2016 and probably even 2017 using the latest employment figures from BPNG. So using the NSO figures to 2014, the new minus 5.9% figure from the ANU/UPNG, and then a conservative estimate of just no growth rather than a continuing recession, average non-resource incomes in PNG have gone backwards by over K1,000 for every person. This is disastrous for over 8 million citizens and businesses operating in png and undermines the governments own SME policies and other grand announcements for the agriculture sector ” said the Shadow Treasurer.
“This fall in average incomes under the PNC is in stark contrast to the better economic policies under the National Alliance. From 2003 to 2012, average incomes went up by over K1,100. So we see the contrast – under National Alliance incomes were going up by over K100 every year, while under the PNC incomes are going backwards by K200 every year. This indicates the mess created by the PNC. Even with better policies, it will take years to undo the damage done by PNC. If income growth had continued at the same pace as under the Somare National Alliance decade, then people in PNG would now be over K1,500 better off (K500 increase and not a K1,000 loss).
“In my 2018 Budget reply speech, I talked of the incomes and jobs crisis facing this nation, as well as a budget crisis and a foreign exchange crisis. We now can confidently put some figures on how bad things have become under PNC relative to the National Alliance’s economic performance. The incomes crisis is a loss of K1,500 per person. The jobs loss is over 100,000 as discussed in my previous media release. The people of PNG deserve something better than a PNC-led government” said Mr Ling-Stuckey.
Shadow Minister for Treasury & Finance
25 August 2018
Source: PNG National Statistics Office (NSO) non-resource GDP figures from 2006 to 2014 on GDP, ANU/UPNG figures for 2015 based on NSO March 2018 GDP report. Conservative assumption of no real growth from 2016 onwards rather than ANU/UPNG views of a likely continuing recession into 2016 and 2017. 2003 to 2005 from earlier NSO figures adjusted at a sectoral level for the re-estimated GDP based figures (2007) released by the NSO in 2016. Population figures from NSO (assuming 3.1% population growth rate). This rising number of people in PNG is the reason the graph continues to fall from 2016 to 2018 as this shows real non-resource incomes in per capita terms – the appropriate measure for average incomes in PNG. All figures converted to 2018 values using BPNG and PNG Treasury inflation estimates.
Full article from ANU/UPNG available at http://www.devpolicy.org/pngs-2015-non-resource-recession-20180824/ including links to the more detailed paper presented at the PNG Update conference.
MEDREL -PNG’s ECONOMIC RECESSION-K1000 WORSE OFF PER PERSON UNDER PNC.250818 ils